Disclaimer: This blog entry is a forward-looking statement, and as such, it is utter nonsense.
2000-2050
We know this reality. We are are already in it, and we can probably predict with some degree of coincidental accuracy what will happen. Of course, if humanity keeps behaving as badly as it does, a major disaster is likely to push the reset button on most of these predictions. But barring such a disaster, we can predict the present as follows:
Information Overload - over 1.5 million Google hits for “information overload”. Over 34 million Google hits for “global warming” - which could kill us all… Or maybe it doesn’t exist at all… Either way, there is nothing a human can do with this amount of raw data
Very little knowledge; way too much data
Lack of respect for authority, stemming from the healthy availability of information and knowledge about the missing knowledge. Today, many people notice that the Doctor doesn't know exactly what causes a headache, back-ache, sneezing, high blood pressure, and other common health problems. Naturally, the doctor doesn't have a "scientific" way to deal with these problems, so the patient can just hope for a general blanket treatment: Take an Aspirin / Prozac / Ritalin / ... Medical doctors do know more today than 30 years ago, but the public's knowledge grew more quickly, and now the public is starting to be aware of the lack of knowledge. A similar situation exists with politicians (what used to be called "leaders") - we are now more aware of their failings
Uncertainty. Life has always been uncertain, but in eras when people has respect for authorities, they relied on the leaders and experts to provide them a sense of certainty. A false sense, but that didn't matter. These days, more and more people are exposed directly to uncertainty regarding health, wealth, political stability, etc.
Civilization War - There may be a disagreement about the term, but the reality is at least disturbing. The western world and the Islamic world, at the very least, see reality very differently. At the moment there is no sign of getting closer to a common ground. We can expect this to continue for decades - at least.
Sensory Overload, accompanied by emotional strain, is quite common: Television programming and advertisement; street advertisement; the infinite cereal aisle of any supermarket; the barrage of news in the radio, TV, newspapers and Internet; spam in your mailbox; Internet banners; semi-relevant Internet search results; all the flashy gadget the Joneses just got; fear dished out by politicians and interest groups; drama dished out by TV, etc.
Short Attention Span, as one of the results of the sensory overload
Life expectancy: 100
Demographics: More old people, and less young people. Creating some economic issues, but not yet enough to change the rules of society
Demographics: More mixing of ethnicities and religions within the same living areas
Rapid Changes: Technological advances cause skills to become obsolete, and other skills to emerge. Occupations disappear and others are created. This has been going on ever since the industrial revolution, and is being sped up by the currently budding information revolution
As a result of the increasing lifespan, the increasing need for older people to keep working due to the changes in old/young people ratio, and the rapid changes in the skills and job-market, people will have several different careers during their lifetime
Society in a hurry: There is a sense of "time poverty" - not having enough time. Dealing constantly with the urgent, not so much with the important
Attention Economy - due to the general hurry, and the large amount of available money in the hand of many people, these people's attention becomes a sought-after commodity. He who has your attention, has a better chance of getting into your wallet. The war on our attention is the main driver of the sensory overload mentioned above
Privacy Issues: Technology allows companies and governments to follow us around. It also allows service providers to give us much more customized service, based on that private information, if we are willing to give up our privacy. The battle rages on between those who value their privacy more, and those who value their convenience more
Specialization is the mainstream in medicine and technology. A more holistic approach is the mainstream in many services: We like a one-stop shop
Market economy seems to be winning, for now
These are the elements of the human environment for which an education system is being sought. The desired graduate of the new education system will have to be able to deal with information and sensory overload, with uncertainty and with rapid changes requiring constant learning. This can be expected to continue at least for the next few decades, so when a new education system is in place, it will still be relevant.
2050-2100
Barring a major disaster:
Rebounding of religion: Possibly Islam expands; possibly non-Islam expands by raising its own religious awareness; possibly China remembers its own religious past
Ubiquitous communication
Ubiquitous access to information – Google’s vision "to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful" becomes a given - at least all the way until "and useful"
Ubiquitous access to low levels of meaning, rather than dead data – semantic web: Internet Search starts to really work, and to produce 100 results rather than 10 million
Supposedly ubiquitous immersive communication. Probably not quite immersive, in the sense that to get the full advantage of non-verbal communication, one will still have to communicate face-to-face
Commoditized simulation – close enough for learning anything the senses can grasp, even if the person using the simulation will be aware of sensory inaccuracies in the simulation
Personalized Experience economy: Already in the early 21st century, there is talk about the experience being paramount. In the late 21st century, together with improved immersive experience technologies, we may expect the coming-of-age of customization. All the basic needs are a commodity, so a customized personal experience is a minimum requirement to make a product or a service valuable
Life expectancy: 200
Demographics: old / young ratio keeps rising
Rapid changes: If it gets much more rapid, society will have to fragment - specialize. A single suburb can’t handle at the same time the daily progress in entertainment, communication, information, work vs. free time, etc.
This is just more-of-the-same as the early 21st century. The desired graduate may need a few more types of skills and habits, but a free market of schools can handle that. Communication, information and simulation technologies may change the details of how the schooling works, but the fundamentals can be expected to remain the same.
2100-2150
Barring a major disaster:
Space colonization - fragments of society can find a new world. Much like America in the 17th century
Immersive communication - a la Asimov's The Naked Sun, only better, since we can include stimulation of all senses, not just visual and auditory stimulation
Immersive simulation
Life expectancy: 1000
Demographics: old vs. young
No-child policy implemented in some societies
New social structures
New religions and sets of values
Pacifist societies
Warlike societies
Despotic societies
Meaning economy: "Experience", no matter how finely customized for a specific person, may not be enough. To give a product or a service any value, it has to be conceived as giving meaning to the customer's life. this is not all that different than how it is in the present, but we can expect 22nd century denizens to be more aware of it
“Observation” emerging as an accepted lifestyle, for older people
With the new social structures and value systems, we begin to run the risk that any education system being thought of in the ancient times of the 21st century would be quite out of date. The only hope is that market-based schooling will be able to adapt quickly enough, providing a valuable "product." The combination of a much higher adult/child ratio and the "meaning economy", may bring many adults to become interested in being active in the education of the young. "The Young" in 22nd century context may be very different than 20th century terms. It is possible that everybody under 60 will be considered a bit of a child...
2150-2200
A major disaster is no longer a threat to humanity as a whole, due to the prevalence of space colonization. Societies will be too scattered to be destroyed by a single disaster.
Life expectancy: Not defined
“Observation” takes hold as an accepted lifestyle
Adults massively outnumber children, in most of the various societies
Immersive discourse, using empathic technology: No science fiction - just brain-to-brain interface
In any society that doesn’t shun technology - No need for “work” to be done by humans
This reality is projected to be extremely removed from current reality. Note, though that the human psyche would not have changed one bit in these two centuries. Any guess as to the desired graduate, and the expectations from the education establishment, would be too far-fetched. Each of the societies will create its own education system.
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